The MMA market in the first half of 2022 showed a trend of first up and then down. The geopolitical situation caused international crude oil prices to rise sharply, which in turn made costs climb leading to a series of losses in the C4 process, so even with the launch of three sets of new capacity, the overall supply was still reduced compared to the same period last year to support the price rise. However, the first half of the end consumption shrinkage made the market turn down. In the second half of the year, many sets of new MMA production capacity plans to put into operation, the follow-up of domestic demand and exports later become the key to determine the direction of the market. The average price fell 2.4% year-on-year amplitude narrowed by 29 percentage points

Taking the price of the primary market in East China as an example, the average price of MMA from January to June 2022 was 12,290.57 yuan/ton, down 2.4% year-on-year, with a price amplitude of 21.9%, while the price amplitude from January to June 2021 was 50.9%, narrowing by 29 percentage points year-on-year. From the price fluctuations of the primary market in East China in the past five years, MMA prices in 2022 are at the level below the average line in the past five years. January-March and May prices basically maintain a certain spread with the average line, with a spread of about 1,750 yuan/ton, and April and June prices are close to the average line, with a narrowing spread. The logic behind this is that the main reason for the rise in MMA prices in the first quarter was the strong price support of raw material costs, while the price decline in the second quarter was the traditional peak demand season in May due to the weakening impact of logistics capacity in the region shrunk.

The second half of 2022 from the supply side, Zhuo Chuan information data statistics in the third and fourth quarter, a total of 560,000 tons / year of new production capacity is planned to put into operation, if the completion of smoothly put into operation at the end of the capacity increase of more than 56%. Considering the pressure of high costs in the second half of the year or a certain degree of relief, the willingness of enterprises to produce may affect the actual supply changes.

From the demand side, domestic demand is mainly the ACR industry has new capacity, the end demand is still concerned about the recovery of the golden ninth and silver tenth consumption season. Exports or consider the accelerated tightening of overseas currencies will affect the domestic chemicals market exports.

From the cost point of view, the second half of the year by the Federal Reserve interest rate hike policy and the risk of recession in Europe and the United States, the center of gravity of international oil prices may have shifted down, the cost pressure on the petrochemical industry chain is expected to be eased, there is marginal room for profit repair, global consumer confidence is also yet to be restored, it is expected that the second half of 2022 MMA market amplitude or continue to narrow.

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